House Prices Will Fall 35%, Says Analysts, But Is He Right?

The debate surrounding the direction of house prices remains divided, with some analysts forecasting double-digit percentage falls in the short- to medium-term, while others refuse to accept that property prices will drop substantially, owed in part to the supply-demand imbalance across the UK.

Property commentator Charlie Lamdin says house prices will fall a record-breaking 35% peak to trough, over however long that takes, likely two-three years.

The claim from Lamdin, founder of Best Agent and presenter of the Moving Home with Charlie YouTube and TikTok channels, will concern many homeowners who face seeing the value of their property plunge. It will also frustrate many estate agents seeking to talk up the market.

Zoopla said this week that there has been a jump in the proportion of sellers having to accept discounts of 5% or more off the asking price to achieve a sale – the highest level since 2018.

The impact of mortgage rates and cost of living pressures means that buyers who are in the market are driving a harder bargain in comparison to recent years. Some 42% of sellers are accepting discounts over 5% on the asking price to secure a sale – while 15% are accepting discounts of over 10% off the initial asking price, according to data provided by the property portal.

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, said the resilience of the housing market and homebuyers is set to be tested once again as mortgage rates increase, but he expects to see far more ‘modest’ price falls.

“We still expect house prices to be 5% lower over 2023,” he said.

So who is right when it comes to pricing?

Donnell appeared live on Lamdin’s online channel last night to debate their differences on how far national house prices will fall.